Unanswerable Real Estate Questions & Hopeful Thoughts about "The Bottom"
Posted by Leslie Hogan on
Punxsutawney Phil - Correct 40% of the Time
"Is this the bottom?" the buyer asked.
"Yes." I replied. "Yes, it is, and there will be 6 more weeks of winter too." Like Punxsutawney Phil, I make predictions at this time of year. Unlike Phil, I actually consider the indicators. Â I'm pretty confident I can best his 40% success rate. (source: National Climatic Data Center)
Here are a few reasons I believe we may actually be at or near the bottom - offered with WAY more authority than Phil's suggestion of a prolonged winter.
1. In 2011 outstanding mortgage balances went down $30B every month. Steady, sustained improvement means momentum. Momentum is what pulls you out of troughs like this.
2. Job gains are accelerating. January brought 243,000 new…
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